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Jump ahead: Game of the night | Picks and props | Analytics edge
What you need to know for Tuesday’s slate
By Jim McCormick and Kyle Soppe
Get the Bag: Marvin Bagley III (45% available), has stepped up for the Pistons lately with Jerami Grant sidelined. Bagley has scored 52 points over his past two games and could feast on a Brooklyn team that lacks rim protection. Meanwhile, Andre Drummond (48%) is a legitimate double-double threat for the Nets against his former team.
PG’s Return: Paul George (9% available) is set to return to the Clippers’ lineup tonight after missing 43 games with an elbow injury. George’s return isn’t likely to change Robert Covington’s (37% available) role very much. The Clippers will need Covington’s defense against a capable Utah offense. He has produced seven blocks and four steals over his last three outings and merits interest as a streaming candidate and a target for defensive props.
Mathief Thybulle: Whether you are chasing steals and/or blocks in the final weeks of a broken format or simply need to beef up your defense in head-to-head leagues, Matisse Thybulle (82%) is your guy. After all, he leads the entire league in steal percentage. While foul trouble can get in the way of his minutes at times, his value of him as the team’s best point-of-attack defender should keep him busy against Jrue Holiday tonight. He’s likely to play a large defensive role against Milwaukee’s wave of perimeter scorers and also a solid target for stock props (steals and blocks).
Slot in Satoransky: Tomas Satoransky (99% available) checks in at just $4,100 on DraftKings, but there is a little more upside than meets the eye in a game BPI actually likes the Wizards to win tonight. He has at least five dimes in each of Washington’s past four victories and is averaging over a steal per game while
LeBron-less Lakers: LeBron James and Anthony Davis are listed as doubtful to play against the Mavericks tonight. Malik Monk (78%) has seen his usage rate jump by 3.8% when James and Davis have been off the floor this season. Monk has scored 46 points over his last two games and is a helpful streaming option and DFS bargain for this five-game slate.
Game of the Night
Milwaukee Bucks at Philadelphia 76ers
7 p.m. ET, Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia, PA
Line: 76ers (-1.5)
Moneyline: 76ers (-125), Bucks (+105)
Total: 228.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 228.5 points
BPI Win%: 76ers (56%)
Key players ruled out: none
Remarkable: Three straight (and six of eight) Milwaukee games have gone under the projected point total.
Best bet: Giannis Antetokounmpo over 47.5 points + assists + rebounds. Antetokounmpo has a history of big games against the 76ers. He has averaged over 47.5 PAR in each of the last four seasons against the 76ers and in the last two seasons he’s topped that mark in four of five games (including both matchups this season). — Andre Snellings
Breaking down the rest of the slate
Chicago Bulls at Washington Wizards
7 p.m. ET, Capital One Arena, Washington D.C.
Line: Bulls (-3.5)
Moneyline: Bulls (-160), Wizards (+140)
Total: 223 points
BPI Projected Total: 231 points
BPI Win%: Wizards (55%)
Key players ruled out: kyle kuzma
Remarkable: After failing to cover seven of nine games, the Wizards have covered consecutive games and host a Bulls team that played in New York last night.
Fantasy Streamer: daniel gafford. Gafford (87.8% available) should get more playing time with Kyle Kuzma out. He has averaged 18.2 points, 11.4 rebounds, and 2.0 assists per 40 minutes. The Bulls rank 21st in points allowed per 100 possessions. –Eric Moody
Best bet: Tomas Satoransky over 15.5 points + assists + rebounds. Satoransky has replaced Raul Neto in the Wizards’ starting lineup and has averaged 11.4 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 7.0 assists per 40 minutes. Satoransky has averaged 29.5 MPG over his past two games. The Lakers (24.7) are the only other team to surrender more PPG to point guards than the Bulls (24.6). — Moody
Best bet: Kristaps Porzingis over 31.5 points + rebounds. Porzingis has averaged 21 PPG and 8.5 RPG over the past 10 games. He has received a ton of usage as the Wizards’ No. 1 option and could bounce back after a poor shooting performance against the Warriors Sunday. — Moody
Detroit Pistons at Brooklyn Nets
7 p.m. ET, Barclays Center, Brooklyn, NY
Line: Nets (-13.5)
Moneyline: Nets (-1000), Pistons (+650)
Total: 229.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 223.5 points
BPI Win%: Nets (77%)
Key players ruled out: Jerami Grant
Remarkable: Over their past 13 games, the Pistons are 10-2-1 ATS with nine unders coming through over that stretch.
Best Bet: Andre Drummond. Drummond (45% available) has proven to be a valuable addition to the Nets, providing them with a consistent inside presence as an offensive and defensive contributor. He has averaged 16 PPG, 10.7 RPG, 2.0 SPG, and 1.0 BPG over the past three games. — Moody
Los Angeles Lakers at Dallas Mavericks
7:30 p.m. ET, American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX
Line: Mavericks (-12)
Moneyline: Mavericks (-800), Lakers (+550)
Total: 218.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 224 points
BPI Win%: Mavericks (74.4%)
Key players ruled out: none
Doubtful: LeBron James (ankle), Anthony Davis (foot)
Remarkable: The Mavericks boast a top-10 defense in terms of efficiency, so it’s worth noting that the Lakers have failed to cover each of their past seven games that have gone under the point total.
Fantasy Streamer: Malik Monk. Monk will become one of the Lakers’ primary offensive players with LeBron James and Anthony Davis doubtful. He has averaged 15.5 PPG, 3.6 APG, 3.4 RPG, and 1.1 SPG over the past 14 games. — Moody
Best bet: Russell Westbrook over 33.5 points + assists + rebounds. Westbrook is producing more as of late. He has averaged 21.2 PPG, 8.6 APG and 8.0 RPG for 37.8 PAR over his past five games. LeBron James is doubtful to play tonight, and in Westbrook’s last seven games without LeBron, he’s averaged 20.3 PPG, 7.1 RPG and 7.3 APG, averaging 34.7 PAR. –Snellings
Bestbet: Under 219. The Mavericks play at the slowest pace in the NBA, while the Lakers rank seventh. If James and Davis sit, this game has the potential to be low-scoring. Dallas has gone under in their past five games and nine of their last 13 games against the Lakers. — Moody
Utah Jazz at LA Clippers
10 p.m. ET, Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA
Line: Clippers (-1)
Moneyline: Clippers (-120), Jazz (+100)
Total: 216 points
BPI Projected Total: 216.5 points
BPI Win%: Jazz (54.6%)
Key players ruled out: Hassan Whiteside
questionable: Paul George
Remarkable: The Jazz have failed to cover four straight and have seen under tickets cash in 11 of their past 14 games.
Fantasy Streamer: Eric Paschall. If Rudy Gobert is unable to play, Paschall (99.8% available) will start at center. With Hassan Whiteside already ruled out, Paschall will get considerable minutes either way. He has averaged 18 points, 5.7 rebounds and 2.0 assists per 40 minutes. — Moody
BPI highest projected totals
1. Washington Wizards (116.4 points)
2. Brooklyn Nets (115.9 points)
3. Dallas Mavericks (115.8 points)
BPI lowest projected totals
1. LA Clippers (107.6 points)
2. Detroit Pistons (107.8 points)
3. Los Angeles Lakers (108.5 points)
BPI top probability to win (straight up)
1. Brooklyn Nets (77%)
2. Dallas Mavericks (74.4%)
3. Philadelphia 76ers (56%)